Some history¶

Peter Ralph

https://uodsci.github.io/dsci345

Threads of statistical history¶

  • Cryptography: Al-Khalīl, 750, Al-Kindi, 800, Ibn ’Adlan, 1200
  • Gambling: Bernoulli, 1700, de Moivre, 1718
  • Astronomy/physics: Laplace, 1780, Adrain, 1800, Gauss, 1800
  • Public health: Quetelet, 1835, Nightingale, 1850

The "birth of modern statistics"¶

Galton and Pearson, 1910, Galton white-bearded and looking into the distance, Pearson looking right at the camera RA Fisher, small round glasses and tidy white beard, looking condescending

Galton's science¶

Galton's scatter plot of heights: midparent on the x, child on the y (sex-adjusted); the regression line goes up but below the y=x line, and follows the points, which are mean child heights in bins of parent heights

title page of the book statistical methods for research workers, 1925

Karl Pearson:

  • correlation coefficient; $p$-value
  • head of the first Department of Applied Statistics as the Galton chair of Eugenics
  • focus on "biometry"

RA Fisher:

  • developed ANOVA, maximum likelihood, lots of evolutionary theory
  • Galton chair of Eugenics, succeeding K. Pearson

Eugenics?¶

Now, if you are going to take Darwinism as your theory of life and apply it to human problems, you must not only believe it to be true, but you must set to, and demonstrate that it actually applies. […] It was not a light task, but it gave for many years the raison d’etre of my statistical work.

Pearson, 1912, in ‘Darwinism, Medical Progress and Eugenics’. Eugenics Laboratory Lecture Series, IX

poster with a large "Eugenics" on a scroll in front of an oak tree; below it says "eugenics is the self-direction of human evolution" and the roots are labeled things like "biology", "psychology", "mental testing", "genetics", "statistics", "sociology", "anthropology", "medicine", "surgery" (eek)

Who gets to "direct"?¶

mural from UO's Runquist library showing at the bottom brown-colored people crouching over plants and stones; moving up are ancient egyptians and greeks doing science-ey things; then europeans doing science-ey things; at the top are european/american-looking people with gears and pistons and microscopes (see link for more)

Galton's view of British social structure: a bell curve with vertical segments; the middle is labeled "'respectable' working class"; to the left is "poor and low-paid" and then "criminals, paupers, etc"; on the right is "skilled workers, foremen, clerks, small tradesmen, etc"; and then "independent professionals, large employers, etc". The x axis is labeled "genetic worth".

Galton 1909, *Essays in Eugenics.* London: Eugenics Education Society. (from MacKenzie)

PSA: eugenics is a bunch of bullshit

Pearson and tuberculosis¶

  • caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis

  • occurs more often among relatives

  • major risk factors: silicosis (30x), malnutrition, smoking, alcoholism, crowding

  • minor: genetics (mostly immune-related)

Pearson: it’s hereditary!

Fisher and smoking:¶

Fisher, smoking

  • Hill & Doll: retrospectively compare cancer rates between matched smoking/nonsmoking pairs

  • Hill & Doll: prospectively compare cancer rates between smoking/nonsmoking doctors

  • etcetera

  • Fisher: Correlation is not causation. Let’s calmly study this a while longer.

Looking back¶

Pearson and Fisher had a big impact, but there's lots more voices out there!

David Blackwell FN David Bin Yu Mary Eleanor Spear

Looking forward¶

Pearson & Fisher had a big impact in part because (they were pushy and) they were working towards something.

Today we have many problems that we need quantitative work to solve.

Where do you want to have an impact?

Some sources¶

  • Eugenics and Statistics, by Nathaniel Joselson
  • Statistics in Britain, 1865-1930, by Donald MacKenzie
  • RA Fisher and the science of hatred, New Statesmen, by Richard J Evans
  • Empire of Guns, by Priya Satia
  • Fisher and lung cancer, Priceonomics
  • How Eugenics Shaped Statistics, by Aubrey Clayton
  • Maga's era of 'soft eugenics': let the weak get sick, help the clever breed, by Derek Beres